Feasibility article

Is It Worth Improving Your Uncertainty Basis?

Before spending time or money on metering improvements, it is worth testing whether a better uncertainty basis would actually make a meaningful difference.


Not every metering improvement is worth pursuing.

Some changes look attractive technically but make very little practical difference. Others can have a much more meaningful impact than expected, especially where a weak uncertainty basis is forcing unnecessarily conservative reporting or limiting confidence in the monitoring position.

The challenge is usually not spotting that the current basis could be better. The challenge is working out whether improving it is likely to be worth the effort.

Start with the current case

The first step is to understand the uncertainty basis you have now.

That means looking at the real inputs behind the reported result, not just the headline meter type. In many cases, the limiting factors are not the primary element itself, but a combination of installation effects, transmitter performance, process data quality, assumptions, laboratory inputs, or weak supporting evidence.

Until the current case is laid out clearly, it is very difficult to judge whether improvement is likely to be meaningful.

Then test an improved case

Once the current basis is visible, the next step is to model a realistic improved case.

This should not be an idealised fantasy case. It should be something technically plausible, such as:

  • better transmitter specification
  • improved calibration basis
  • stronger installation evidence
  • improved fluid-property basis
  • better treatment of repeatability or bias
  • removal of an obviously conservative assumption
  • tighter supporting data for a key input

The useful question is not whether the uncertainty can be improved in theory. It is whether it can be improved in a realistic way that would actually matter.

What you are really trying to find out

This kind of exercise is not about promising savings.

It is about screening for practical relevance. In simple terms, you are asking:

  • How much better could the uncertainty basis realistically get?
  • Would that change be material?
  • Could it reduce unnecessary conservative exposure?
  • Is the likely benefit large enough to justify further work?
Before investing in upgrades, test the current case, test an improved case, and compare the gap.

A simple feasibility approach

A practical screening exercise usually looks like this:

Current case

Model the uncertainty basis as it stands now.

Improved case

Adjust only the inputs that could realistically be improved.

Compare the gap

See whether the resulting improvement is marginal, moderate, or substantial.

Estimate the practical significance

If the purpose is carbon reporting, a simple indicative check is:

Potential value ≈ annual CO₂ exposure × avoidable conservative overstatement × carbon price

This is not a compliance determination. It is a screening tool to help decide whether the improvement is worth investigating properly.

How to judge the result

A good feasibility check should help you sort the outcome into one of three groups:

1. Not worth chasing

The improved case is only marginally better, and the practical gain looks too small to justify further effort.

2. Worth watching

The improvement is noticeable, but more evidence is needed before deciding whether to invest further.

3. Worth pursuing properly

The improved case is materially better, and the likely practical benefit looks large enough to justify a deeper review.

What not to do

A common but sub-optimal approach is to assume that any better specification or tighter uncertainty figure is automatically worth paying for. That is not always true.

Another weak approach is to avoid testing improvement at all because the current basis “works”. That can leave avoidable value on the table.

Final takeaway

Before committing to metering changes, it is worth asking a simple question:

If the uncertainty basis improved, would the outcome actually matter?

A structured compare-the-current-case versus improved-case exercise can answer that quickly.

If the gain is trivial, you save time. If the gain is meaningful, you have a much stronger basis for deciding what to do next.

Want to see whether a better uncertainty basis could be worth pursuing?

Run your current case in the calculator, then test a realistic improved case and compare the difference.